I am one of those people who plan their travel at the last moment. So, more often than not, I end up getting a waitlist ticket in trains. Hence, I generally book tickets in multiple trains to increase the probability of getting a confirm ticket in at least one of the trains. But there are several trains to the same destination and I can’t go around booking ticket in every single train! It’s during times like these that I wish for a tool that could predict the chances of getting a confirm ticket in a train so that I can take an informed decision.
Two friends, Sripad Vaidya and Dinesh Kumar Kotha, who faced similar problems while traveling, decided to do something about it. After analyzing huge data of almost 2,500 trains and deriving logic out of it, they launched a website- ConfirmTkt, in July 2014 to predict the chances of confirmation of a waitlisted ticket.
Features of ConfirmTkt
Using ConfirmTkt you can:
- Predict the chances of getting a confirmation on a currently waitlisted ticket
- Compare the chances of confirmation on multiple trains on a single route
- Check PNR status and get a prediction on its confirmation chances
- Get PNR confirmation notifications via email
Logic Behind ConfirmTkt
ConfirmTkt uses an algorithm to predict the future status of PNRs based on historical trends. This is very similar to how humans think. We humans predict and act on the future based on past experiences. ConfirmTkt does the same, but in a more scientific way. It takes into account several signals, such as day of the travel- weekday/weekend/holiday and waitlist quota -RLWL/GNWL/PQWL etc. to predict the chances of confirmation of a waitlisted ticket. The results are interpreted as:
- ‘Confirm’: if the confirmation chances are above 70%
- ‘Probable’: if the confirmation chances are between 30% and 70%
- ‘No Chance’: if the confirmation chances are below 30%
So far ConfirmTkt has been able to predict results with an accuracy of 88%. The algorithm is designed in such a way that it learns while predicting. So, the accuracy should go higher with time.
How to Use ConfirmTkt?
There are two ways of using the service:
PNR Search: Enter the PNR number in the search box on the website and click on “Get Status”.
The result page will show the current status of the ticket as well as the chances of the ticket getting confirmed. You can also enter your e-mail id to get confirmation notification.
Train Search: Enter the to and fro destinations and select the class of travel and date, and hit “Search”.
A neat list of available trains, current availability and chances of getting a confirmed ticket are clearly displayed.
What do you think of this website? Give it a try next time when you are booking a train ticket :-).